HOW TO WIN AT SLOTS. Slot machines are games with odds based in math, just like all other casino games. But few players understand just how those odds work, and whether they can do anything to improve their odds. Here are a few basics: Slots machine results are as random as humans can program a computer to be.
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Introduction
The following table ranks the Las Vegas casinos according to the looseness of their video display reeled nickel slot machines. The returns are based on a sampling of five different types of machines. The data collected goes back as far as October 2001 so the information is a bit dated.
Las Vegas 5 Cent Slot Survey
| Rank | Casino | Average Return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palms | 93.42% |
| 2 | Gold Coast | 92.84% |
| 3 | Sahara | 92.81% |
| 4 (tie) | Bourbon Street | 92.63% |
| 4 (tie) | Imperial Palace | 92.63% |
| 4 (tie) | Slots a Fun | 92.63% |
| 7 | Key Largo | 92.60% |
| 8 | Western | 92.57% |
| 9 | Ellis Island | 92.56% |
| 10 | El Cortez | 92.56% |
| 11 | Orleans | 92.56% |
| 12 | Circus Circus | 92.56% |
| 13 | Gold Spike | 92.55% |
| 14 | Fitzgeralds | 92.54% |
| 15 | Fiesta - Rancho | 92.53% |
| 16 | Arizona Charlie's East | 92.51% |
| 17 | Barbary Coast | 92.50% |
| 18 | Terrible's | 92.49% |
| 19 | Arizona Charlie's | 92.49% |
| 20 | Hard Rock | 92.47% |
| 21 | Town Hall | 92.47% |
| 22 | Longhorn | 92.47% |
| 23 | Riviera | 92.23% |
| 24 | California | 92.14% |
| 25 | Lady Luck | 92.10% |
| 26 | Nevada Palace | 92.06% |
| 27 | Plaza | 91.94% |
| 28 | Luxor | 91.92% |
| 29 | Paris | 91.92% |
| 30 | San Remo | 91.88% |
| 31 | Excalibur | 91.84% |
| 32 | Palace Station | 91.84% |
| 33 | Ballys | 91.82% |
| 34 | Las Vegas Club | 91.76% |
| 35 | Four Queens | 91.75% |
| 36 | Texas Station | 91.71% |
| 37 | Casino Royale | 91.67% |
| 38 | Boulder Station | 91.55% |
| 39 | Aladdin | 91.5% |
| 40 | O'sheas | 91.48% |
| 41 | Hilton | 91.40% |
| 42 | Boardwalk | 91.28% |
| 43 | New York New York | 90.99% |
| 44 | Horseshoe | 90.96% |
| 45 | Sam's Town | 90.89% |
| 46 | Santa Fe Station | 90.87% |
| 47 | Flamingo | 90.86% |
| 48 | Golden Nugget | 90.85% |
| 49 | Stratosphere | 90.8% |
| 50 | Tropicana | 90.71% |
| 51 | Golden Gate | 90.64% |
| 52 | Silverton | 90.57% |
| 53 | Main Street Station | 90.56% |
| 54 | Westward Ho | 90.40% |
| 55 | Fremont | 90.37% |
| 56 | Castaways | 90.36% |
| 57 | Monte Carlo | 90.24% |
| 58 | Stardust | 89.97% |
| 59 | Frontier | 89.91% |
| 60 | MGM Grand | 89.81% |
| 61 | Harrahs | 89.32% |
| 62 | Treasure Island | 89.32% |
| 63 | Mirage | 89.3% |
| 64 | Caesars Palace | 89.05% |
| 65 | Mandalay Bay | 88.87% |
| 66 | Rio | 88.72% |
| 67 | La Bayou | 88.26% |
| 68 | Mermaids | 88.26% |
| 69 | Bellagio | 87.42% |
| 70 | Venetian | 86.66% |
| 71 | Airport | 85.02% |
Excluded Casinos
The Suncoast and Rampart Casino in Summerlin do not allow playing slots and taking notes at the same time. I can not include any casino that prohibits the method in which I gather data.
Location Averages
The next table shows the average return by location.
Returns by Region
| Location | Average Return |
|---|---|
| Off strip | 92.07% |
| Downtown | 91.66% |
| Strip | 91.47% |
| Total | 91.74% |
The above sign can be found across the street from the Palms. Although I did the study Anthony Curtis published it in the LasVegas Advisor, which is how it become well known. The'...' in the sign encompases quite a bit of information,which was conveniently left off the sign. Actually the study only says that the Palms had the lowest nickel video slotsof the casinos surveyed in Las Vegas. The small print at thebottom says, 'Independent study conducted between November2001-February 2002 on Austin Powers, Fortune Cookie, Reel'em In, and Wheel of Fortune games. They left off LeopardSpots, and the study began in October.
Observations
There seemed to be no truth behind slot placement myths. Machines on the end of a bank did no better on average than those in the middle. There was also no correlation between return and proximity to such things as the main door, table game pit, high traffic areas, and low traffic areas.
Most casinos were very consistent in their slot returns.If one nickel machine had a return of x% then all others like it also returned x%. However some casinos did mix up loose and tight machines, most notably Treasure Island and the California casinos.
Methodology
A kind and anonymous source provided me with par sheets for the games in question. The EPROM (Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory) chip is what tells the machine the order of the symbols on the reel, in some cases how the stops are weighted, how much each winning combination pays, and any other pertinent information about how much the machine pays.It is up to the slot manager to select which EPROM chip to order according to the return percentage desired. On atypical game there might be about 8 different possible return percentages, ranging from about 85% to 98%.
Each of the different par sheets has five sets of distinct reels. On video display slots the stops are not weighted; in other words all stops are equally likely. The distribution of each symbol on each reel is what determines the theoretical return of the machine. For example a higher paying machine may have more of the higher paying symbols.
On the machine itself three consecutive symbols arevisible on five different reels. By comparing actualobservations of results to the par sheets it is possible todetermine which reels the machine uses, and thus which par sheet and which return. There are various three-symbol combinations that appear in at least one but not all par sheets. So if one of these combinations occurs on an actualmachine it narrows down the possible par sheets. By playingenough the player can narrow down the possible par sheets tojust one.
To help identify the unique combinations I wrote a computer program for each game, which had the exact reel order of all 5 reels of all the par sheets. The program then counted the number of par sheets with each possible three-symbol combination. If the number was greater than 0 and less than the maximum then that combination was identified along with the associated par sheets it belonged to.
It is then a matter of simply playing the game and comparing the outcomes to the list of partially unique combinations. It only takes about 5-10 plays per machine to narrow down the possibilities to just one par sheet.
The averages in the table are actually an average of averages. For each kind of machine at each casino I took an average return. Then I took the average of these averages over the five kinds of machines I tested for.
Slot Machine Definition
There is some confusion about what constitutes a 'slot machine' or 'slot.' My definition, and that of most gamblers, is a gambling machine with either actual spinning reels or video representations of the them.
People in the gaming business and regulators generally refer to a slot machine as any gambling machine, including reeled slots, video poker, video keno, video blackjack,etc.. For purposes of statistics both casino managers and regulators combine all the electronic gambling machines together. For example, the Slot Chart in Casino Player magazine and reports by the Nevada Gaming Control Board do not isolate just reeled slots but consider all electronic games a 'slot.' Therefore my return percentages should not be expected to agree with those reported by the casinos or regulators. As far as I know mine is the only source to isolate just the return of reeled slots.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Rob Feldheim for helping with the slot play and record keeping. Rob helped me with most of the casinos on the east side of town and part of downtown. I would also like to thank par Sheet Pete (not his real name)for providing the par sheets, without which this project would not have been possible.
Internal Links
Go to slot machine appendix3B (Jean/Primm slot returns).
Go to slot machine appendix 3D(Henderson slot returns).
Go to slot machine appendix 3E(Las Vegas quarter and dollar slot returns).
Go to slot machine appendix 3F(Montreal slot return).
Go back to slot machines.
External Links
The main-stream media has covered this study in depth. Here are links to some articles.
- Turning'em loose, an article that appeared in the Las VegasReview Journal on May 19, 2002, about the possible effectsof this study.
- One-Armed Bandit or Robin Hood? , an article by myself for Contingencies Magazine explaining the methodology, results, and weaknesses of the study.
- Play by the rules and the one-armed bandits will still win. Boston Globe article about slot machines, in which my Las Vegas survey is mentioned and my advice quoted. (cache)
Written by: Michael Shackleford
Roulette wheel | Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
Spending a weekend gambling in Vegas may be fun, though you’ll probably have an even better time if you win big at the tables. If you’re hoping to beat the odds at the casino, the game you choose to play matters. You’re more likely to come home a little bit richer if you sit down at the blackjack table rather than settling in with the gray-haired set at the slots.
It all comes down to math. Amateur gamblers may hope luck is on their side when they walk through the doors of the Bellagio or Caesars Palace, but what they really need to think about are the odds of winning at different games. While the house always has an edge, it’s much bigger in some situations than in others. That’s why you never see smart gamblers wasting their time playing keno or wheel of fortune – games where you’re almost guaranteed to lose money.
Casino games with the best odds
Savvy gamblers are going to cluster around the blackjack tables, where the casino’s edge is usually between 0.5% to 1%, though the number varies depending on the number of decks and other rule variations. You can calculate the house edge on a particular game of blackjack using the Wizard of Odds online calculator. Those numbers also assume you’re playing with what’s known as basic strategy, or making the best possible decision based on the cards you’ve been dealt. For the average player who’s going to make some mistakes, the house’s edge increases to 2%, according to the University of Nevada’s Center for Gaming Research.
Blackjack table | Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
“Blackjack is one of our easiest games to play,” Jay Bean, a floor manager at Caesar’s, told Cleveland’s Newsnet5. “You’re just looking for a number that beats the dealer’s number without going over 21.”
“You are somewhere between 44% to 48% in every single hand of winning,” Michael Magazine, a professor of analytics at the University of Cincinnati, said of blackjack.
After blackjack, the games with the best odds are baccarat and craps. In baccarat, which is a game of chance rather than skill, the odds are close to 50/50, though your chances are slightly better if you bet on the banker rather than the player. At the craps table, the house edge on a pass line bet is 1.4%.
Roulette is one of the easiest casino games to play, and the odds are also fairly good. If you only bet on red or black or evens or odds (as opposed to a specific number) the house edge is 5.26%, assuming you’re playing in an American casino with double zeros on the wheel. Your odds of winning are better in a European casino with a single-zero wheel.
Slot Machine Jackpot Odds
Video poker is another game with fairly good odds for players. “For video poker the statistical advantage varies depending on the particular machine, but generally this game can be very player friendly — house edge less than 3% is not uncommon and some are less than 1% — if played with expert strategy,” per the Center for Gaming Research.
Casino games with the worst odds
Slots may be less intimidating to novice gamblers than table games like blackjack, but the house is more likely to take you for a ride. Each slot machine is different, but the Wizard of Odds estimates the house edge for penny slots at between 6% and 15%. If you can’t resist the slots, chose a higher-denomination machine, since these tend to have a higher payout percentage than lower-denomination slots.
“The average slot machine is probably two, three times more costly to players than the table games,” Bill Zender, a former professional gambler, told Mental Floss.
Even worse than slots are “sucker games” like wheel of fortune and keno. The house advantage on keno averages 27%, according to the Center for Gaming. For wheel of fortune games (which also go by names like “big six” and “lucky wheel”), the house edge ranges from 11% to 24%, depending on your bet.
Whether you choose to take a chance on the wheel of fortune or are a high-roller playing baccarat, understanding how the game is played will put you ahead of most other players.
“Ninety percent of the people who walk into a casino have no idea of the odds stacked against them,” Zender said.
Also keep this in mind: The more you gamble, the likelier you are to lose. An analysis of online gamblers found that those who bet the least also had the highest winning percentage. But even then, the numbers weren’t great. Seventeen percent of the lightest gamblers ended up in the black over a two-year period. Only 5.4% of the heaviest gamblers came out ahead.
“[T]he average person doesn’t understand the math” of the multiplier effect, Jim Kilby, who has written books on casino management, told the Wall Street Journal. “Casino games are nibbling machines, and the more nibbles you have, the bigger your losses.”
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